New Polls Show Lula Still Leads 2026 Scenarios as Margins Narrow to a Technical Tie With Bolsonaro

Overview

• Genial/Quaest (Nov 6–9; 2,004 interviews; ±2 pts) finds Lula ahead in every first‑round test, ranging from 31% to 39%, and leading in all simulated runoffs.
• Lula versus Jair Bolsonaro registers 42% to 39%, a technical tie within the margin of error, with Lula’s second‑round advantages over Tarcísio, Ratinho Jr., Zema and Caiado smaller than in October.
• Voter sentiment tilts toward alternatives: 24% prefer a winner linked to neither Lula nor Bolsonaro, 59% say Lula should not seek re‑election, and 67% think Bolsonaro should back another candidate.
• Rejection remains an obstacle for Bolsonarismo figures, with Paraná Pesquisas (Nov 6–10; 2,020 interviews; ±2.2 pts) showing Flávio Bolsonaro as most rejected at 51.8% and Jair at 50%, while Lula’s rejection is 48.6% there and 53% in Quaest.
• New entrant Renan Santos (Missão/MBL) debuts with low single‑digit first‑round support but reaches 25% in a runoff simulation against Lula (42%).