New Polls Show Lula Leading 2026 First Round as Right-Wing Vote Splits

Overview

• Ipsos-Ipec places Lula at a steady 38% across four first-round scenarios, with Michelle Bolsonaro at 23%, Flávio Bolsonaro at 19%, Eduardo Bolsonaro at 18% and Tarcísio de Freitas at 17%, while other governors remain in single digits.
• Lula’s job performance is viewed negatively by more voters than positively, with 52% disapproval versus 42% approval, and 40% rating the government bad or very bad compared with 30% good or very good.
• Datafolha reports entrenched convictions from 2022: 91% say they do not regret their presidential vote, and 77% consider the 2026 election very important.
• Rejection remains a hurdle for the president, who posts the highest refusal rate at 44%; 49% of respondents view Jair Bolsonaro’s absence from the 2026 race as negative and 40% as positive.
• Both surveys used about 2,000 in-person interviews with roughly ±2-point margins of error, conducted Dec. 2–8, capturing early reactions to Bolsonaro’s ineligibility and Flávio Bolsonaro’s pre-candidacy launch.