Overview
- An AtlasIntel survey of Pará voters reports Lula leading the first round 44.7% to Flávio Bolsonaro’s 37.2% but projects a second‑round result of 48.8% to 45.6%, a gap inside the poll’s ±3.0 percentage‑point margin.
- A national Futura Inteligência/100% Cidades poll finds Lula and Ronaldo Caiado effectively tied in a head‑to‑head at 43.7% to 42.8% and shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro numerically close at 45.0% to 45.4%, with a sample of 2,000 and a ±2.2 pp margin of error.
- Because reported differences fall within each survey’s margin of error, both outlets and pollsters label the second‑round tests technical ties rather than clear leads, which underscores polling uncertainty.
- The Futura/100% Cidades national data also place Caiado well back in first‑round voting intentions at about 4.4%, a position that makes it hard for him to reach a real runoff despite close one‑on‑one numbers.
- Under Brazil’s two‑round system these results mean campaign strategy, alliances and turnout will be decisive, since small shifts in voter choice or mobilization could change tightly contested runoffs.