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3h ago

New Polls Put National Rally First for Snap Legislative Vote and 2027 First Round

The findings deepen pressure on Emmanuel Macron over a possible dissolution as his centrist bloc slips to the mid-teens.

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Les leaders du parti d’extrême droite Marine Le Pen et Jordan Bardella font la course en tête dans les sondages.
Marine Le Pen et Jordan Bardella, sortant d’une réunion avec le Sébastien Lecornu, le 17 septembre dernier.

Overview

  • An OpinionWay survey for CNews (Oct. 6–7) projects National Rally at 33–34% in a first round of hypothetical early legislative elections, with the ruling Renaissance–MoDem–Horizons bloc at 14–16%.
  • The same legislative polling tests show the left’s result varies sharply by alliance, reaching about 24% if united, 18% for a PS–PCF–Greens pact, and 13% for an LFI–PCF–Greens slate.
  • A Toluna Harris Interactive poll for RTL (Oct. 7) puts National Rally ahead in 2027 first‑round presidential intentions at 34–35%, whether led by Jordan Bardella (35%) or Marine Le Pen (34%).
  • Leader-level figures in the RTL poll show Édouard Philippe at 15–16%, Gabriel Attal at 12%, Jean‑Luc Mélenchon at 14%, and LR’s Bruno Retailleau at 10–11%, with Le Pen noted as currently constrained by a conviction.
  • Methodology notes: RTL poll n=1,289 (online, Oct. 7) and CNews poll n=1,109 (online, Oct. 6–7), each citing margins of error around 1.4 to 3.1 points; the polling follows PM Sébastien Lecornu’s resignation and renewed dissolution talk.