Overview

• A national Gerp survey indicates Lula would lose 2026 runoffs to Jair Bolsonaro (48% to 36%), Michelle Bolsonaro (48% to 36%) and Tarcísio de Freitas (45% to 36%).
• Gerp interviewed 2,000 voters by phone with a reported margin of error of 2.24 percentage points and a 95.55% confidence level.
• Paraná Pesquisas finds Lula at 36.5% versus Bolsonaro’s 31.5% in Minas Gerais, a virtual tie within the ±2.6-point margin of error from Oct. 1–5 fieldwork.
• In Minas Gerais second-round tests, Lula leads Romeu Zema 47.7% to 39.2% and is statistically tied with Tarcísio de Freitas at 42.7% to 41.6%.
• Paraná Pesquisas reports 51.8% disapproval of Lula’s work in Minas Gerais, while Zema’s administration is approved by 63.6% of state voters.