Overview

• Genial/Quaest’s first post-conviction survey finds 76% believe Jair Bolsonaro should give up a 2026 bid and support another candidate.
• Across eight first-round and nine second-round simulations, Genial/Quaest shows Lula leading in every scenario, with the closest runoff against Ciro Gomes at 40% to 33%.
• AtlasIntel/Bloomberg likewise reports Lula ahead in first round tests (48.1% vs 42.1% against Bolsonaro; 48.2% vs 30.4% against Tarcísio) and victorious in all modeled runoffs.
• Despite Lula’s advantage, 59% of respondents in Genial/Quaest say he should not run for re-election in 2026.
• The right lacks a clear successor: Genial/Quaest lists Tarcísio de Freitas at 15%, Ratinho Júnior at 9% and Michelle Bolsonaro at 5%, while 28% choose “none,” and Bolsonaro remains legally ineligible until 2030.