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2h ago

New Polls Put Left Slightly Ahead in Paris, With Dati Favored in Most Runoffs

A fragmented field and a 10% threshold raise the likelihood of a four-way second round that could reshape alliances.

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Bertrand Delanoë présente Emmanuel Grégoire à une Parisienne, sur un marché boulevard Auguste-Blanqui à Paris, dans le XIIIe arrondissement, le 11 janvier 2026.
Sophia Chikirou, Emmanuel Grégoire, Pierre-Yves Bournazel, Rachida Dati, Thierry Mariani et Sarah Knafo, les six candidats déclarés à la mairie de Paris.
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Overview

  • An Ifop-Fiducial survey reports the PS–Green–communist list led by Emmanuel Grégoire at 30% versus 28% for Rachida Dati, within the margin of error, while Elabe finds 33% to 26%.
  • Runoff simulations published by l’Opinion indicate Dati is the favorite in most second-round configurations despite trailing narrowly in first-round voting.
  • Pierre‑Yves Bournazel polls around 16% and LFI’s Sophia Chikirou hovers at 10–11%, putting four lists in range to qualify under the 10% rule.
  • Reconquête’s Sarah Knafo formally launched her bid and is polling at about 8–9%, edging RN’s Thierry Mariani at 5–7% and intensifying competition on the right.
  • Campaign signals sharpened over the weekend as ex-mayor Bertrand Delanoë publicly backed Grégoire, Dati pressed a vote‑usefulness pitch, and Grégoire outlined plans to bolster the municipal police.