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2h ago

New Polls Put AfD and CDU/CSU in a Dead Heat as Union Closes In

Fresh surveys highlight splintered support, limiting straightforward coalition options.

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Plenarsitzung im Berliner Abgeordnetenhaus.
Die Union unter Bundeskanzler Friedrich Merz (CDU) legt bei Insa zu
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Overview

  • Insa’s Sonntagstrend conducted January 12–16 finds AfD at 26% and the CDU/CSU at 25%, with SPD 14%, Greens 12% and Linke 11% (n=1,202).
  • ZDF’s Politbarometer published January 16 shows the Union at 26% and the AfD at 25%, with the SPD at 15%, the Greens at 12% and the Left at 10%.
  • Roughly 12% of voter intentions go to parties below the 5% threshold, significantly shaping seat distribution.
  • On these numbers a CDU/CSU–SPD pairing lacks a majority, leaving a CDU/CSU–SPD–Greens option as the only non‑excluded majority if FDP and BSW remain under 5%.
  • A separate BerlinTrend reports CDU 22%, Left 18%, AfD 17%, Greens 16%, SPD 14% and BSW 3% in Berlin, making only three‑party coalitions viable at the state level.