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New Polls Keep Mamdani Ahead in NYC Mayor’s Race, With Leads From 10 to 25 Points

Split opposition leaves Andrew Cuomo and Curtis Sliwa competing for the same voters.

Overview

  • Three late surveys show varying margins: Emerson has Mamdani 50%–25%–21%, Marist 48%–32%–16%, and Quinnipiac 43%–33%–14%.
  • Marist reports a narrower 51%–44% Mamdani edge in a hypothetical one-on-one with Cuomo, underscoring the impact of Sliwa staying in the race.
  • Quinnipiac’s subgroup finds Cuomo leading Jewish voters 60% to 16%, highlighting a key demographic split.
  • Early voting is underway with high participation across boroughs, and Emerson finds already-cast ballots breaking 58%–25% for Mamdani.
  • The campaign’s final week features Islamophobic rhetoric and AI-generated attack ads targeting Mamdani, including a Cuomo video that was posted and later deleted.