Overview
- Trump’s net approval has fallen from minus 10 before the shutdown to minus 15, the lowest level of his second term, according to Enten’s analysis.
- Democrats’ generic congressional ballot advantage has moved from a 3-point lead pre-shutdown to 5 points, with a Marquette Law School poll showing a 9-point edge among likely voters.
- The shutdown ran from October 1 to November 12 over disputes involving Affordable Care Act premium tax credits and Medicaid changes.
- Enten says the post-shutdown polling aligns with recent special-election results in New Jersey and Virginia, where Democrats outperformed recent baselines.
- The short-term funding deal that ended the shutdown did not include an extension of enhanced ACA subsidies, leaving the underlying policy fight unresolved.