Overview

• Insa’s latest survey for Bild shows CDU/CSU at 26% (down one point) and the AfD at 25%, with the SPD at 14.5% based on 2,010 interviews conducted August 15–18.
• Sixty‑eight percent of respondents expect the AfD to supply at least one minister‑president after the 2026 votes in Baden‑Württemberg, Rheinland‑Pfalz, Sachsen‑Anhalt, Berlin and Mecklenburg‑Vorpommern; 43% foresee at least one state, 25% multiple states, 19% none.
• On the Union’s ‘Brandmauer’ excluding cooperation with the AfD, 47% want the stance maintained and 40% would end it.
• Other pollsters show different snapshots: Forsa has the AfD at 26% ahead of the Union at 24%, while the ZDF/Tagesspiegel Politbarometer puts the Union at 27% and the AfD at 23%, underscoring typical survey uncertainty.
• The findings land ahead of September’s North Rhine‑Westphalia municipal elections, a near‑term gauge of party momentum before the 2026 state contests.