Overview

• Cluster17 for Le Point finds Jordan Bardella at 30% in first-round intentions, with Raphaël Glucksmann, Jean‑Luc Mélenchon and Édouard Philippe each at 15%, Bruno Retailleau at 12% and Éric Zemmour at 5.5%.
• If Gabriel Attal is tested instead of Philippe, the centrist score falls to 12% while Marine Le Pen posts 30.5%, reinforcing signs of a weakening macronist space.
• Scenarios without Glucksmann show Marine Tondelier at 7.5% or Olivier Faure at 8%, with Philippe rising to 19.5%, highlighting the limited transfer of votes on the left.
• An Ifop‑Fiducial survey published September 29 likewise places the RN far ahead at 33–35%, with Glucksmann leading the tested left at 14–16% ahead of Mélenchon at 12–13% and Philippe between 16% and 19%.
• Glucksmann rejects a broad left primary that includes LFI, ecologists criticize the absence of Marine Tondelier in some tests, and analysts describe two largely impermeable left blocs that complicate second‑round paths.