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New Poll Puts Tennessee’s TN-7 Special on a Knife Edge, With GOP Up Two

A Democratic flip would cut the Republican House majority to 218 seats, intensifying late spending and turnout drives ahead of the Dec. 2 vote.

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Democratic congressional candidate State Rep. Aftyn Behn, D-Nashville, attends a campaign event during the special election for the seventh district, Thursday, Nov. 13, 2025, Nashville, Tenn. (AP Photo/George Walker IV)
Voters arrive to vote at a polling station in San Francisco, California, on November 4, during California's special election on Proposition 50, a measure that would temporarily redraw congressional districts.
Democratic congressional candidate Aftyn Behn visits a home in Franklin, Tennessee as she canvases for votes in a special election for the state's seventh district, on November 13.

Overview

  • An Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey conducted Nov. 22–24 shows Matt Van Epps at 48% and Aftyn Behn at 46%, within the ±3.9-point margin of error.
  • Early voters favor Behn 56%–42% while those planning to vote on Election Day back Van Epps 51%–39%, with younger voters leaning Democratic and older voters leaning Republican.
  • Inside Elections shifted the race rating from safe Republican to lean Republican, while Cook Political Report remains at likely Republican.
  • National attention and money have surged, with House Majority PAC reserving about $515,000 and MAGA Inc. placing smaller buys, as President Trump urges turnout and Kamala Harris visits the district.
  • The deep-red seat, vacated by Republican Mark Green and carried by Trump by roughly 22 points in 2024, has logged more than 63,000 early votes, and GOP attacks have highlighted resurfaced past remarks by Behn.