New Poll Puts Lula Ahead in First Round, Runoff With Tarcísio Too Close to Call

Overview

• Lula holds roughly 40% in all first‑round trial heats, with São Paulo governor Tarcísio de Freitas the strongest challenger at 32.7% in his best scenario.
• In a simulated runoff, Lula scores 44.4% to Tarcísio’s 42.1%, a technical tie within the poll’s ±2.2‑point margin of error, while Lula leads other rivals by wider margins.
• Government approval stands at 47% versus 50% disapproval, and Lula registers the highest individual rejection rate at 40.8%.
• Public security is the administration’s weakest‑rated area, with 48.7% calling it poor or very poor, which pollsters link to pressure on overall government ratings.
• Spontaneous preferences still cite Jair Bolsonaro at 9.5% despite his ineligibility and imprisonment, indicating a persistent right‑of‑center constituency.