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New Poll Puts Cornyn and Paxton in a Dead Heat in Texas GOP Senate Primary

The UH/TSU survey signals a likely March runoff with no contender near a majority.

Overview

  • The UH/TSU poll of likely GOP primary voters has Paxton at 34%, Cornyn at 33%, Hunt at 22% and 11% undecided, with fieldwork conducted Sept. 19–Oct. 1 and Hunt newly entered with lower name recognition at 69%.
  • Results show a pronounced gender split, with Cornyn leading among women and Paxton ahead among men.
  • In hypothetical general-election matchups, Hunt performs best against Democrats on average, leading by 4.5 points versus 3.5 for Cornyn and 2.25 for Paxton.
  • Half of GOP primary voters say they are more likely to back a Trump-endorsed candidate, while 40% say an endorsement would not affect their choice.
  • The same survey shows Rep. Chip Roy leading the Republican race to succeed Paxton as attorney general at 40%, and a follow-up finds Trump’s 2024 support among the same Texans down seven points to 49%.