Overview
- The Odoxa‑Mascaret survey of 1,300 respondents shows Jordan Bardella defeating Édouard Philippe 53% to 47% in a hypothetical runoff.
- He would also beat Gabriel Attal 56% to 44% and Jean‑Luc Mélenchon 74% to 26%, and the poll gives him 58% against Raphaël Glucksmann.
- The poll was commissioned by regional newspapers and Public Sénat, with a reported margin of error between 1.5 and 3.5 points.
- Bardella’s potential candidacy remains unsettled because Marine Le Pen is appealing her conviction and an immediate candidacy ban, with a decision expected in February 2026.
- With Emmanuel Macron ineligible for a third term and party lineups still fluid, declared contender Édouard Philippe and possible runner Gabriel Attal are among those tested against Bardella.