Overview
- The Argument/Verasight poll of 1,521 registered voters conducted December 5–11 shows Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 51% and Vice President JD Vance at 49%, within the ±2.7 percentage-point margin of error.
- Ocasio-Cortez boosted the finding on X with a one-word caption, “Bloop!,” and later told reporters, “I would stomp him,” while noting the limits of such early polling.
- Crosstabs indicate stark splits, with Ocasio-Cortez leading among young voters as well as Black and Hispanic voters and women, and Vance ahead among white voters and men.
- Neither Ocasio-Cortez nor Vance has declared a 2028 run, and most expectations point to formal decisions after the 2026 midterm elections.
- Contemporaneous primary polling generally places Ocasio-Cortez behind Democrats such as Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris, while Vance is widely characterized as the leading Republican prospect if he runs.