Overview
- Numbers from the April 2–8 Data for Progress poll show Haley Stevens at 23% with Abdul El-Sayed and Mallory McMorrow at 22% each, while 33% remain undecided in a race with a ±4 point margin of error.
- Voters signal resistance to pro‑Israel money, with 64% saying AIPAC donations would make them less likely to back a candidate and 62% saying a candidate who will not stand up to AIPAC is less likely to stand up for Michiganders on other issues.
- The candidates occupy distinct lanes as the Israel–Gaza war defines the debate, with Stevens embracing pro‑Israel backing and taking more than $1.2 million from AIPAC since 2022, El‑Sayed running on sharp criticism of U.S. support for Israel, and McMorrow positioning herself between them.
- Second‑choice preferences and head‑to‑head tests favor McMorrow, who leads El‑Sayed 34% to 26% and Stevens 34% to 25%, and is the top backup pick for 38% of voters.
- The issue landscape tilts left, with strong interest in progressive endorsements and policies such as Medicare for All, and the poll shows 87% would be less likely to support a candidate who backs military action against Iran.