Overview
- Mason-Dixon surveyed separate statewide samples of 400 registered Republicans and 400 registered Democrats from Jan. 8–13, with a ±5% margin of error.
- In the GOP field, Byron Donalds leads at 37%, with newly announced candidate Lt. Gov. Jay Collins at 7%, former House Speaker Paul Renner at 4% and James Fishback at 3%, while 49% are undecided.
- Among Democrats, David Jolly draws 23% to Jerry Demings’ 19%, a gap within the poll’s margin of error, and 58% of voters remain undecided.
- Donalds is the only candidate in either primary recognized by a majority of his party’s voters, and he is endorsed by President Donald Trump.
- The party primaries are closed to registered voters of each party and are scheduled for Aug. 18, 2026.