Overview

• The analysis draws on eight years of data from more than 12,000 regions in 54 countries to model impacts on six staple crops that supply over two-thirds of humanity’s calories.
• By century’s end, rising temperatures could cut corn and soybean yields in the US Midwest by up to half, putting the future of the Corn Belt at risk.
• Rice may benefit from warmer nights while wheat, maize and soybeans face a 70 to 90 percent chance of yield declines under high-emission scenarios.
• Farmers’ adjustments—such as switching crop varieties, shifting planting dates and tweaking fertilizer use—are estimated to offset only about one-third of climate-driven losses by 2100.
• Crop production could fall around 8 percent by 2050 even under slower emissions growth, with heat-driven price surges expected to worsen food access in vulnerable regions.