New National Polls Find Voters Entrenched, With Lula Leading All 2026 First-Round Tests

Overview

• Ipsos-Ipec shows 40% rate Lula’s government as bad or very bad and 30% as good or very good, with presidential job approval at 42% and disapproval at 52%.
• Across four first-round scenarios, Lula holds a consistent 38% while top right-wing options register lower levels: Michelle Bolsonaro at 23%, Flávio Bolsonaro at 19%, Eduardo Bolsonaro at 18% and Tarcísio de Freitas at 17%.
• Datafolha reports that 91% of voters do not regret their 2022 presidential choice and that 77% consider the 2026 election very important, underscoring hardened partisan loyalties.
• Rejection remains high for leading figures, with Lula at 44% in both polls and Jair Bolsonaro at 45% in Datafolha, as Flávio, Michelle and Eduardo Bolsonaro post lower but notable negatives.
• Methodology snapshots show roughly 2,000 face-to-face interviews nationwide and a ±2 percentage point margin of error, with Datafolha in the field Dec. 2–4 and Ipsos-Ipec Dec. 4–8 after Flávio Bolsonaro’s emergence as a family-backed candidate; 57% say Lula should not run for re-election and 40% say he should.