Overview

• A separate YouGov seat-by-seat model released earlier put Reform on 311 MPs, making it the largest party in a hung parliament and short of an outright majority.
• More in Common’s projection reduces Labour to 90 seats and places the Conservatives fourth on 41, with the Liberal Democrats on 69.
• YouGov’s model estimates Labour on 144 and the Conservatives on 45, marking severe reversals since Labour’s 2024 landslide.
• Keir Starmer responded by calling Reform “an enemy” ahead of Labour’s conference as MPs discuss leadership options involving Andy Burnham.
• Polling experts urge caution about long-range MRP forecasts, noting large samples — about 11,000–13,000 for YouGov and 19,520 for More in Common — and the potential for opinion to shift.