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New Models Show Trump’s ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ Will Boost Emissions and Energy Costs

Analyses project that repealing clean energy incentives will raise U.S. emissions above baseline levels.

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Overview

  • A C2ES model finds that scrapping clean energy subsidies will increase U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by about 8 percent over baseline projections.
  • Princeton and Rhodium Group forecasts indicate that by 2035 emissions cuts could shrink from 32–51 percent without the bill to 25–44 percent under its provisions.
  • Energy Innovation projects wholesale electricity prices will rise 25 percent by 2030 and 74 percent by 2035, and consumer rates will climb 9–18 percent over the decade.
  • The legislation locks in tax breaks for oil, gas and coal and expands drilling access on public lands and offshore.
  • The Congressional Budget Office estimates the bill will add $3.4 trillion to federal deficits over the next decade.