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New Modelling Says Third Heathrow Runway Would Push UK Past Carbon Budget

The report forces ministers to decide whether to prioritise extra airport capacity or to keep the UK within its legally binding seventh carbon budget.

Overview

  • Independent modelling by the University of Manchester’s Tyndall Centre, commissioned by Friends of the Earth, finds UK aviation is already forecast to breach the seventh carbon budget and that a third Heathrow runway would cause a formal overshoot.
  • The public consultation on the Government’s Heathrow expansion national policy statement closed on Tuesday and the Department for Transport says it will review responses before ministers set out next steps later this year.
  • Heathrow and supporters say the roughly £33 billion scheme would lift capacity to about 756,000 flights and 150 million passengers per year and could support tens of thousands of jobs.
  • Government analysis published in June cut the runway’s projected boost to growth to 0.05% and warned the project could impose up to £62.5 billion in net social costs while also noting up to £42.4 billion in passenger benefits.
  • Campaigners including London mayor Sadiq Khan and Friends of the Earth argue sustainable aviation fuels and carbon removals cannot offset the added emissions at the scale required and they are urging ministers to reject the expansion to protect climate targets, air quality and local communities.