Overview

• The model shows that slow magma supply into a small, warm chamber can suppress ground deformation and earthquake signals before an eruption.
• Simulations based on three summer seasons of data before Veniaminof’s 2018 stealthy eruption tested variations in magma volume, reservoir shape, depth and temperature.
• Only two of Veniaminof’s 13 eruptions since 1993 were preceded by clear warning signs, underscoring the frequency of undetected volcanic activity.
• Scientists propose adding borehole tiltmeters, strainmeters, fiber-optic sensing, infrasound arrays and gas emission monitoring to existing observation networks.
• Applying machine learning to detect subtle seismic and deformation signals could enhance forecasting at volcanoes near communities and major air routes worldwide.