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New Model Puts Odds of Spotting an Exploding Primordial Black Hole This Decade at Up to 90%

UMass Amherst researchers argue a dark‑charge mechanism could delay PBH evaporation enough for today’s instruments to see the Hawking‑radiation burst.

Overview

  • The Physical Review Letters study proposes a dark‑QED toy model with a heavy “dark electron” and a small dark electric charge that can temporarily stabilize primordial black holes.
  • Under the model’s assumptions, the expected observable explosion rate shifts from roughly once per 100,000 years to about once per 10 years.
  • Authors stress the figure is a probability rather than a prediction, noting the result is model‑dependent and has not been confirmed observationally.
  • Researchers say current gamma‑ray telescopes and particle‑shower detectors could capture a signal if teams prepare targeted searches and analysis pipelines.
  • A confirmed event would offer the first direct evidence of both Hawking radiation and primordial black holes and could reveal a comprehensive inventory of fundamental particles, though distinguishing tiny PBHs from background sources remains challenging.