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New Model Predicts 'Stealthy' Volcano Eruptions

The study identifies key magma chamber conditions that allow eruptions to occur without detectable precursors.

Steam rising from the intracaldera cinder cone at Veniaminof volcano
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Overview

  • Published June 10, 2025 in Frontiers in Earth Science, the study led by Dr. Yuyu Li uses Veniaminof’s 2018 eruption data to build its predictive model.
  • Researchers found that slow magma supply into a small, thermally warmed chamber suppresses ground deformation and seismic signals, enabling stealthy eruptions.
  • Veniaminof has produced 13 eruptions since 1993 but only two offered clear warning signs, underscoring the hazards of undetected activity.
  • To capture subtle eruption triggers, scientists recommend integrating borehole tiltmeters, strainmeters, fiber-optic sensing, infrasound arrays and gas emission monitors.
  • The model offers a framework for assessing stealth eruption risks at similarly prone volcanoes worldwide, including Popocatépetl, Merapi and Stromboli.