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New Model Predicts 'Stealthy' Volcano Eruptions

The study identifies key magma chamber conditions that allow eruptions to occur without detectable precursors.

Overview

  • Published June 10, 2025 in Frontiers in Earth Science, the study led by Dr. Yuyu Li uses Veniaminof’s 2018 eruption data to build its predictive model.
  • Researchers found that slow magma supply into a small, thermally warmed chamber suppresses ground deformation and seismic signals, enabling stealthy eruptions.
  • Veniaminof has produced 13 eruptions since 1993 but only two offered clear warning signs, underscoring the hazards of undetected activity.
  • To capture subtle eruption triggers, scientists recommend integrating borehole tiltmeters, strainmeters, fiber-optic sensing, infrasound arrays and gas emission monitors.
  • The model offers a framework for assessing stealth eruption risks at similarly prone volcanoes worldwide, including Popocatépetl, Merapi and Stromboli.