Overview

• Rahil Makadia of the University of Illinois unveiled the approach at the EPSC‑DPS 2025 meeting, presenting a practical way to choose kinetic impact points that steer clear of gravitational keyholes.
• The system generates probability maps across an asteroid’s surface by modeling how shape, mass, rotation and local terrain translate an impact into long‑term orbital changes.
• Applying the method to asteroid Bennu, the team identified more than 2,000 potential keyholes and highlighted safer strike zones for a future deflection scenario.
• Rendezvous reconnaissance offers the best inputs for these maps, yet preliminary assessments remain feasible using ground‑based observations when timelines are tight.
• NASA’s DART mission proved kinetic deflection in 2022, ESA’s Hera is due to examine Didymos–Dimorphos in 2026, and the 2029 Apophis flyby is set to provide fresh data through OSIRIS‑APEX and ESA’s RAMSES mission.