Overview
- An Emerson College/PIX11/The Hill survey taken Oct. 25–28 puts Mikie Sherrill at 49% and Jack Ciattarelli at 48% (±3), a statistical tie that moves to 50%–48% for Sherrill when leaners are included.
- Other late polling diverges, with Suffolk University showing Sherrill +4 and a Fox News poll showing her +7, underscoring wide variability across final surveys.
- Early voting data show Democrats leading ballots cast so far (54% Democrats, 28% Republicans), though only about three in ten likely voters had voted as of midweek in one poll.
- The gender gap is stark, with Emerson finding men favor Ciattarelli by 16 points and women favor Sherrill by 18 points, a split that both campaigns are leaning on for turnout.
- The contest has drawn record spending and national figures, with party committees pouring over $34 million into a race projected to top $200 million overall, as reporting also notes DOJ election monitors deployed at GOP request in a key county.