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New Jersey Governor’s Race Tied at 43% in Emerson Poll

The first mainstream poll to show a tie underscores a race now driven by affordability pressures.

Jack Ciattarelli participates in the New Jersey gubernatorial debate on September 21, 2025 in Lawrenceville, New Jersey.
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WASHINGTON, DC - FEBRUARY 28: U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) questions witnesses in a hearing of the House Select Committee on Strategic Competition between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party, in the Cannon House Office Building on February 28, 2023 in Washington, DC. The committee is investigating economic, technological and security competition between the U.S. and China. (Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)
The path to victory for either candidate in this year's race for governor in New Jersey runs through Morris County.

Overview

  • An Emerson College/PIX11/The Hill survey conducted Sept. 22–23 of 935 likely voters finds Mikie Sherrill and Jack Ciattarelli locked at 43% each, with 11% undecided and a ±3.1-point credibility interval.
  • The result is the cycle’s first mainstream dead heat after months of Sherrill leads, landing days after the first debate and a burst of new advertising.
  • Demographic divides are stark: women favor Sherrill 46–36 as men back Ciattarelli 51–39; voters under 40 prefer Sherrill 58–24, while those 50 and older favor Ciattarelli 52–36.
  • Economic concerns dominate with 51% naming the economy as their top issue, as voters highlight utility costs and taxes and apportion blame to utility companies and the governor in differing measures.
  • National dynamics loom with President Trump’s approval at about 41% and voters split 51%–49% on whether the next governor should stand up to or work with his administration; early voting opens Oct. 25.