Overview
- Late polls keep the contest tight, with Quinnipiac showing Sherrill up 51%–43% and Suffolk measuring a 46%–42% edge.
- Democrats report an advantage in ballots cast during the Oct. 25–Nov. 2 early-voting window, putting premium focus on Election Day turnout.
- National parties have saturated the state, with the DNC committing millions including a fresh $500,000 infusion and the RNC deploying full-time staff, county captains, more than 15,000 volunteers, and its VotePro tool.
- President Donald Trump endorsed Ciattarelli and held Election Eve tele-rallies after his 2024 gains in New Jersey, while Barack Obama rallied with Sherrill in Newark.
- Voters face sharp contrasts on affordability as Sherrill vows a day-one utility-cost emergency and Ciattarelli targets some green mandates, with the race also shaped by a National Archives records leak and an opioid-related accusation that drew a lawsuit threat.