Overview
- An Emerson/PIX11/The Hill survey conducted Oct. 25–28 shows Mikie Sherrill at 49% and Jack Ciattarelli at 48% among likely voters, with 2% undecided and a ±3 point margin of error; with leaners, Sherrill leads 50% to 48%.
- Early-vote data show a Democratic edge so far — roughly 54% of early ballots from registered Democrats versus 28% Republicans — placing greater weight on in-person Election Day turnout.
- Emerson reports a pronounced gender gap, with men favoring Ciattarelli by about 16 points and women backing Sherrill by about 18 points.
- Other reputable polls diverge late in the race, including a Fox News survey showing Sherrill +7 and a Suffolk University poll showing Sherrill +4, underscoring volatile readings in a competitive contest.
- Record spending is flooding the race, with party committees contributing more than $34 million and total outlays projected to top $200 million, as election monitoring extends to Passaic County at the New Jersey GOP’s request.