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3h ago

New Jersey Governor’s Race Centers on Nonwhite Turnout After Trump’s 2024 Gains

Analysts warn that off-year participation drops in majority-nonwhite communities could outweigh Mikie Sherrill’s polling edge over Jack Ciattarelli.

Voters cast ballots at at the Loudon County Office of Elections and Voter Registration in Leesburg, Virginia, on September 19, the first day of early voting in Virginia's gubernatorial election.
Winsome Earle-Sears speaks during a campaign event in Vienna, Virginia, on July 1.
Glenn Youngkin, alongside his staff and Sen. Ted Cruz, watch results come in on election night in Chantilly, Virginia, on November 2, 2021.

Overview

  • Democrats and community leaders voice concern that Black and Hispanic voters may stay home, potentially narrowing Sherrill’s lead.
  • Decision Desk HQ’s average shows Sherrill ahead 49% to 44%, but a sizable soft and undecided electorate keeps the race volatile.
  • Trump cut Democrats’ margins statewide in 2024, driven by sharp gains in Hispanic areas like Perth Amboy, Paterson and Passaic, introducing uncertainty for 2025.
  • Gubernatorial turnout historically falls well below presidential levels, with the steepest 2021 drop-offs in majority-nonwhite municipalities that typically anchor Democratic margins.
  • Sherrill courts communities of color with affordability and first-time homebuyer plans and touts endorsements from Ras Baraka, Cory Booker and Barack Obama, while Ciattarelli intensifies outreach in Black and Hispanic neighborhoods and draws some ex-Democratic backers; a Hudson County mobilization fight is taking shape.