Overview

• Official Census/HUD data show August new single‑family sales rose to a 800,000 annual pace, up 20.5% month over month and 15.4% year over year, the fastest since early 2022, with gains across all regions.
• Inventory of new homes tightened to 490,000 units, or 7.4 months of supply, from 9.0 months in July, even as the median new‑home price ticked up to $413,500.
• Builders widely leaned on deals, with NAHB/Wells Fargo reporting 39% cut prices in September and surveys noting elevated incentives, coinciding with 30‑year mortgage rates near an 11‑month low around 6.26%.
• Redfin reports the strongest buyer’s market in over a decade, estimating about 35% more sellers than buyers in August, and projects existing‑home sales near 4.05 million for 2025, roughly in line with 2024’s multi‑decade lows.
• Fannie Mae now expects mortgage rates to trend toward 5.9% by end‑2026 and home sales to rebound, though analysts caution new‑home data are volatile and a softer labor market could temper momentum.