Overview
- Russia has shifted to a defensive posture with about 700,000 troops holding a 1,200‑kilometer front while reducing offensive activity to limit losses.
- Ukraine remains on the offensive, continues to receive NATO support, and now produces nearly 80 percent of its required weapons and munitions.
- Recent analyses place Russian casualties at roughly 1.2–1.4 million, as CSIS estimates average advances at only about 70 meters per day.
- Russia’s equipment losses number in the tens of thousands across armored vehicles, artillery, aircraft, and ships, with sanctions constraining production despite supplies from North Korea, Iran, and Chinese components.
- Domestic strain is rising with protests, passive resistance, a collapse in recruiting, and depleted funds for signing bonuses, while the state restricts independent reporting and pays compensation to blunt backlash.