Overview
- Yale Budget Lab finds no evidence of broad, present-day labor-market disruption from AI since ChatGPT’s release.
- The lab’s measures—changes in occupational mix and time unemployed for high‑exposure roles—show no acceleration or lengthening consistent with mass displacement.
- Vanguard reports faster growth in jobs and real wages for AI‑exposed occupations between 2023 and 2025, with wages up 3.8% versus 0.7% in less‑exposed roles.
- Analysts warn of corporate “AI‑washing,” citing Challenger data showing 55,000 AI‑attributed cuts in the first 11 months of 2025, just 4.5% of total reported layoffs.
- Prominent forecasts of potential future displacement from MIT and Goldman Sachs are not reflected in current macro indicators, and PwC finds most companies report little to no productivity gains from AI so far.