Overview
- The face-to-face poll, conducted Nov. 19–23 with 2,002 interviews and a ±2.2-point margin of error, tests four first-round and eight second-round scenarios.
- In one first-round scenario, Lula has 38.8% to Jair Bolsonaro’s 27.0%, and he reaches 42% or more in other lineups featuring Tarcísio de Freitas, Eduardo Bolsonaro or Michelle Bolsonaro.
- Lula leads all second-round pairings, with the closest results against Tarcísio de Freitas at 45.7% to 39.1% and Ratinho Jr. at 45.8% to 38.7%.
- On political patronage, 35.3% prefer Lula or a candidate he endorses versus 27.3% for Jair Bolsonaro or his endorsed candidate, while 33.3% prefer someone tied to neither.
- The survey reports Jair Bolsonaro with the highest rejection rates and shows Lula with the largest potential vote pool among the tested names.