Overview

• The peer-reviewed paper in the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences estimates wind shear up 16–27% and atmospheric stability down 10–20% between 2015 and 2100.
• The projected changes favor clear‑air turbulence across both hemispheres, with the greatest impacts under the high‑emissions SSP5‑8.5 pathway.
• Researchers say crews may need longer seatbelt periods and more service suspensions, while airlines invest in better turbulence detection and forecasting.
• Clear‑air turbulence is invisible to conventional radar, making it hard to avoid even with careful routing.
• Prior Reading work found severe‑turbulence hours rose about 55% from 1979 to 2020, and U.S. airlines already face $150–$500 million in annual turbulence costs.