Overview

• Negotiations led by French Overseas Minister Manuel Valls ended without consensus on New Caledonia's institutional status after a three-day conclave in early May 2025.
• The territory's economy remains in severe distress, with a GDP contraction of 10–15% in 2024, unemployment affecting up to 15,000 people, and public debt reaching 500% of GDP.
• The May 2024 riots, which resulted in 14 deaths and €2 billion in damages, exacerbated long-standing ethnic and social divisions and deepened political fragmentation.
• Both pro-independence and loyalist factions are internally divided, complicating efforts to build consensus on key issues like voter eligibility and governance.
• Provincial elections are set to occur before November 2025, but the unresolved voter roll continues to fuel tensions and uncertainty about the territory's future.