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New Analyst Calls Split on Marvell’s AI Outlook, From Strong Buy to Hold

Forecasts clash over Marvell’s ability to turn hyperscaler demand into sustained AI revenue.

Overview

  • Raymond James began coverage on Nov. 20 with a Strong Buy and a $121 target, arguing Marvell is well placed in AI compute and advanced packaging.
  • Raymond James models Amazon content near 10% as more work shifts to Alchip and Annapurna and projects Trainium/Inferentia units at 1.5 million in 2025, 2.0 million in 2026 and 2.8 million in 2027.
  • The firm also assumes roughly 10% content on Microsoft’s Maia as volumes rise from about 75,000 in 2025 to 382,000 in 2026 and 620,000 in 2027, with custom compute revenue reaching $1.4 billion in 2026 and $2.2 billion in 2027 and optics at $4.4 billion and $5.6 billion.
  • HSBC initiated on Nov. 24 with a Hold and an $85 target, calling Marvell an important AI player yet favoring Broadcom’s clearer ASIC roadmap and noting more than 70% of Marvell’s revenue comes from Asia and ASIC’s share of hyperscaler capex could reach 13% in 2027.
  • Forbes highlights a roughly 31% year‑to‑date share decline, notes lower forward multiples versus some AI peers, and cites program timing headwinds including Microsoft’s Maia delay to 2026, concerns around Amazon’s Trainium 3 and rising competitive wins for Broadcom; a Seeking Alpha preview points to a $2.5 billion automotive sale and a $1 billion accelerated buyback to refocus on data center growth.