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New Analysis Recasts Early-Onset Cancer Surge as Largely Overdiagnosis

The study reports doubling of diagnoses since the 1990s with mortality for the fastest-rising cancers unchanged.

Overview

  • Researchers in JAMA Internal Medicine found incidence among adults under 50 has roughly doubled since 1990, while combined mortality for eight fast-rising cancers remained about 5.9 deaths per 100,000 in 1992 and 2022.
  • The pattern varies by cancer type, with colorectal and uterine cancers showing clear increases in deaths even as mortality fell or stayed flat for others, according to experts cited in the coverage.
  • The authors attribute much of the incidence growth to intensified detection and potential overdiagnosis, pointing to increased breast imaging and other surveillance that identify cancers unlikely to cause harm.
  • Screening changes likely contributed to reported spikes, including a separate study noting a 50 percent relative rise in colorectal cancer rates in younger adults after the recommended screening age shifted from 50 to 45.
  • Advocates highlight ongoing concerns: colorectal cancer deaths rose to an estimated 53,010 last year with more than 154,000 cases projected this year, women face 82 percent higher early-onset diagnosis rates than men, and overall U.S. cancer mortality has fallen 34 percent since 1991.