Particle.news
Download on the App Store

New Analysis Maps Path to Pull Warming Below 1.5°C by 2100 as COP30 Opens

UN leaders now deem a near-term breach unavoidable, raising pressure for immediate, maximal action.

Hurricane Melissa caused floods in Jamaica in October

Overview

  • Climate Analytics’ Highest Possible Ambition scenario projects a peak near 1.7°C around 2040 before falling to about 1.2°C by 2100 if countries act immediately.
  • The pathway targets CO2 net zero by 2045 and net zero for all greenhouse gases in the 2060s, updating earlier IPCC-style routes for today’s higher emissions.
  • Transformations include rapid electrification, renewables supplying nearly two‑thirds of energy by 2050, and phasedown timelines that retire coal in the 2040s, gas in the 2050s and oil in the 2060s.
  • Required measures also include steep methane cuts of 20% by 2030 and 30% by 2035 versus 2020 levels plus scaling carbon removal to more than 5 gigatonnes a year by 2050.
  • The findings land as COP30 convenes in Belém with uneven political engagement, after the UN confirmed overshoot is inevitable and 2024 registered the first full year at about 1.5°C alongside a record 3.5 ppm CO2 jump.