Overview

• Yale’s Budget Lab estimates the 2025 tariff hikes will increase the number of Americans in poverty by 650,000 to 875,000 in 2026, including up to 375,000 children, lifting the Official Poverty Measure to 10.7% and the Supplemental Poverty Measure to 12.2%.
• The effective U.S. tariff rate has jumped to about 17.4%, the highest since the 1930s, with researchers emphasizing that these import taxes function like a consumption tax that burdens lower‑income households most.
• A Center for American Progress study projects that by 2027 the combined effect of tariffs and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will reduce after‑tax incomes for nearly all households, with the poorest fifth about $1,650 worse off, the middle about $1,300 lower, and only the top 1% gaining roughly $5,000.
• Analysts report consumers absorbed about 22% of tariff costs through June with projections of a much higher pass‑through by October, as sector data show retail categories like footwear already posting notable price increases.
• The Supreme Court has agreed to hear a challenge to the tariff program after a lower court found several levies unlawful, and a ruling against the administration could eliminate roughly 71% of the 2025 tariffs.