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New Analyses Reveal FEMA Flood Maps Miss Flash-Flood Dangers at Camp Mystic and Beyond

Experts urge Congress to secure funding for updated maps that incorporate rainfall-driven flash-flood modeling to address gaps laid bare by the Camp Mystic flood.

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Overview

  • Analyses by NPR, PBS’s FRONTLINE, First Street and ICEYE found FEMA underestimated flood hazards at Camp Mystic by more than twofold.
  • Satellite data show July 4 flash floods at Camp Mystic breached FEMA’s mapped floodway by over 200 feet, overrunning eight buildings including four youth cabins.
  • A First Street nationwide assessment indicates more than twice as many U.S. homes lie in flood-prone areas than FEMA’s century-old mapping recognizes.
  • FEMA’s flood maps have depended on coastal storm surge and large-river data since the 1960s and lack the mandate and budget to include rainfall-driven flash-flood models.
  • Floodplain experts and policymakers are pressing Congress and FEMA to mandate and fund a mapping overhaul that integrates modern flash-flood risk data.