Overview
- Emerson College’s Nov. 16–18 survey of 800 active registered voters finds Gov. Joe Lombardo and Attorney General Aaron Ford at 41% each, with a credibility interval of ±3.4 points and 18% undecided.
- Lombardo’s job approval stands at 34% approve and 36% disapprove, while President Donald Trump registers 39% approve and 54% disapprove among Nevada voters.
- The economy ranks as the top issue for 39% of voters, followed by housing affordability at 16%, underscoring cost-of-living pressures shaping the race.
- Demographic splits show Lombardo leading among independents as Ford posts advantages with Hispanic voters (+16) and women (+5), according to Emerson’s memo.
- Polling remains mixed—an October Noble Predictive Insights survey showed Lombardo +3—while forecasters rate the contest from toss-up (Cook Political Report) to Lean Republican (Sabato’s Crystal Ball), and both campaigns faced new complaints over fundraising blackout and official-account tagging that they say have been remedied.