Overview
- In new analysis, Ran Neuner argues past Bitcoin surges tracked global liquidity growth rather than the halving calendar, aligning with major QE waves in 2013, 2017 and the 2020 pandemic response.
- He highlights the global PMI as a practical gauge, noting recoveries start near 50, stronger Bitcoin momentum has followed readings above roughly 55, and broad altcoin rallies have coincided near 60.
- Neuner says the 2024–2025 post‑halving underperformance reflects quantitative tightening and weak PMI rather than a time‑based cycle ending.
- Recent signals he flags include the Federal Reserve stopping balance‑sheet runoff, initial rate cuts across major economies and PMI basing, which together could precede easier liquidity conditions.
- Institutional demand via spot Bitcoin ETFs remains strong, and Neuner warns retail sellers that exiting on a four‑year narrative may hand coins to institutions before any liquidity‑driven upturn.