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Netherlands Heads to Oct. 29 Vote With Wilders Leading but Coalition Prospects Unclear

Pre-election pledges to exclude the PVV from government signal a drawn-out bargaining round.

Overview

  • Opinion polls a week before the vote estimate the PVV at about 34 seats, slightly below its 37 in 2023.
  • Forecasts place GroenLinks/Labour on roughly 25 seats, the CDA on 23, D66 on 16 and the VVD on about 15.
  • Survey data show roughly 47% of voters were still undecided one week ahead of election day.
  • The CDA, VVD and GL/PvdA say they will not join a government with Geert Wilders, limiting his path to the premiership.
  • Polls open Oct. 29 at 7:30 a.m. and close at 9 p.m., with hand counts overnight and about 70,000 votes needed per seat.