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Netflix Q4 Earnings Tuesday: Record Holiday Lift Meets Warner Bros. Deal Questions

Investor focus centers on guidance as deal uncertainty keeps volatility elevated.

Overview

  • Netflix reports fourth-quarter results on Jan. 20, with Wall Street forecasting about $0.55 in EPS and roughly $12 billion in revenue.
  • Holiday engagement hit new highs, with Nielsen saying streaming captured 54% of U.S. TV viewing on Christmas Day as Netflix aired its first NFL game and Stranger Things led weekly charts.
  • Analysts point to improving retention on Netflix’s ad-supported tier and the platform’s light ad load as a path to stronger monetization.
  • Shares are down roughly 28%–33% from the 52-week high as uncertainty around a proposed $82.7 billion Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition and a related Paramount legal challenge weighs on sentiment.
  • Options imply an expected 7.78% post-earnings move, and prediction markets anticipate executives will emphasize subscribers, pricing, live events, and Warner Bros. on the call.