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Netflix Can Still Be a Long-Term Winner, Just Not at 36% a Year

The analysis contends that repeating 36% annual gains is unrealistic given it would imply a $34 trillion market cap.

Overview

  • Yahoo Finance revisits Netflix's 2011 Qwikster misstep, when shares fell as much as 59% in under three months.
  • Investors who bought that dip saw outsized gains, with the author citing roughly 36% annualized returns and a reported 7,836% gain on shares bought during the 2011 downturn.
  • The piece argues that another 14 years at a 36% yearly pace would require an implausible valuation, so expectations should be reset.
  • Context includes Netflix’s shift from DVD rentals to a global streaming service, with streaming offered as a free subscriber bonus starting in 2007.
  • The author outlines a scenario where modest outperformance versus the S&P 500 could turn about $13,000 invested in 2025 into roughly seven figures over decades, while stressing that past returns do not guarantee future results.