Overview

• United Torah Judaism and Shas have announced they will leave the coalition after a bill to codify broad military draft exemptions stalled, triggering a 48-hour countdown before their departures become official.
• Once the ultraorthodox parties exit, Netanyahu’s governing bloc will shrink to 50 of 120 Knesset seats, falling below the majority threshold.
• The prime minister has until the start of the summer recess to renegotiate draft-exemption legislation and restore his slim parliamentary majority.
• The dispute dates to a 2024 Supreme Court ruling that mandates drafting ultraorthodox men in the absence of new exemption laws.
• The coalition’s fragility risks undermining Israel’s ability to maintain a unified position in ongoing ceasefire negotiations with Hamas in Gaza.